When success becomes a problem. What a bad season for the Kentucky Wildcats means for their program.

I don’t proclaim to be the best college sports fan.  As with everyone, I root for jerseys in college sports.  It’s the nature of the beast.  Especially in basketball when players are one-and-done or leave anytime after their first year.  I don’t subscribe to ANY high school watching.  I never watched a Lebron high school game, sure I took note of this up and coming kid, but I just don’t believe in watching any nationally televised High School anything unless I have some personal interest or investment in that school. 

The closest thing that I may do is watch the All-American football or basketball games where it’s basically graduated / graduating seniors at an all star game where these are the kids that we’ll be seeing at the next level.  Most of my attention is to how each kid choose his school (again, not that I care because they often don’t turn out to be anything) and to see the family reactions.  I loved this kid on last years Underarmor football game, sitting with his whole family, the happiest day of his life, he’s thinking he’s making the best choice / announcement of his life and goes, “I’ll be playing for Alabama” then looking at his mother, let’s just say Momma wasn’t happy.  She wanted her baby boy to go to LSU (I could have the schools flipped, but it doesn’t matter).  When mom’s not happy, no one is happy.  I often wonder if he still went with his choice or had his mind changed.  Also, because I’m cynical of all these choices that are made by (or for, in most cases) these children, I wonder if the mom was pissed because one school was better than the other academically and knew that the reality of her son playing football was still just a dream and he should take advantage of the only thing that is truly given to these players (a free education) or was she more sold that going to her choice of school would insure that her son have a better chance to make it to the Pros?  Or she could have just been a big LSU Tiger’s fan.  Maybe LSU’s colors worked better her wardrobe.  What was most curious was that all the other family members agreed with the kid.  Mom was the ONLY one who didn’t want her son to go to Alabama?  Surely she knew ahead of time and you’d think the whole family would be together on this decision.  It’s not like USC vs Florida where he would be so far away she’d never see him.  I need to know more!  Other than that, I won’t spend two seconds of thought on High School CHILDREN. 

Having said all this, I know that colleges need to get their basketball players from somewhere.  You can’t just pluck them off the street courts via creepy old guy street agents who roam the parks and rec centers for young boys who are good at playing with balls (yes, I compared street agents to child molesters.  Come after me street agents.). 

Without getting into all the good, bad and ugly of the NBA’s age limits or the notion of one-and-dones and all the other bad parts of college sports, this is a thought about the problem Kentucky basketball is going to have in the wake of all of their recent success and the nature of their success.

For the past few years, Coach Calipari has done an excellent job of turning Kentucky into the best NBA factory.  For how much I despise how the kids are treated leading up and through the farce of college sports, I actually admire Coach Cal.  He’s performing his job within the boundaries of the NCAA and NBA rules (at least at Kentucky…and at least so far).  Not for a second do I believe when Coach Cal is listing the top 5, hell top 10, reasons to go to Kentucky basketball do the words, “you’ll graduate with a great education” ever pop up.  Maybe he slips up once or twice and HAS to say it, like you HAVE to say I love you to your girlfriend / wife when you leave the house.  Trust me, “later bitch” doesn’t have the same welcome when you come back home.  But I am sure he says, “Keep your nose clean, we’ll help you get through at least the first semester so you’re eligible.  Don’t worry, not every class at Kentucky is algebra or English lit, we have easy bullshit classes just like every other school.  If you work hard enough, you could be a lottery pick in the NBA. THAT I guarantee.”

This is all fine.  Again, I don’t blame Coach Cal.  He’s a great recruiter and a great coach.  He really does turn these kids into great players.  Here’s a list of players that were drafted to the NBA just since the 2008 NBA draft:

Derrick Rose

Joey Dorsey

Chris Douglas-Roberts

Tyreke Evans

Robert Dozier

John Wall

DeMarcus Cousins

Patrick Patterson

Eric Bledsoe

Daniel Orton

Enes Kanter

Brandon Knight

Josh Harrellson

DeAndre Liggins

Anthony Davis

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Terrence Jones

Marquis Teague

Doron Lamb

Darius Miller

That’s twenty (20) in … hold on…I’m counting my fingers…I think that’s what, 5 years?  20 players DRAFTED in just 5 years.  More impressive, is to look at their names.  These aren’t just lucky mid to late round picks.  You’ve got some of the best and future NBA All Stars.  Give me Rose, AD, Cousins, Bledsoe and MKG against any team made up of players drafted in the last 5 years.  You could make a second team up from the leftovers and almost make the playoffs.

Here’s the problem.  So far, in 2013, his kids aren’t that good.  Inherently, you’re going to have a year or two where the Wall’s and Rose’s of the world aren’t passing through.  Not every prospect fulfills their potential.  Not every NBA or NFL draft has Luck and RG3 waiting at the top of the list. 

On average it seems that Coach Cal is turning out 4 – 5 players to the NBA each year.  This leaves space for the next crop of all stars to come in to take their place.  The Kentucky team only has one (1) Senior and one (1) Grad Student.  Let’s just say one of them has 17 minutes of playing time so far this year.  Not average, but total.  If you’re getting regular playing time, you’ve gotten about 450 minutes so far this year.  My point being, with a 12 – 6 record, no one fears that this team will win the championship again.  Again, that’s fine.  That’s the way it should be. 

What about next year?  There’s a whole graduating class of High School Seniors that have their dreams of going to the NBA and a handful of really talented ones want to go to Kentucky, knowing that’s the school and coach that will help get them to the NBA.  But let’s assume that only one player leaves this Kentucky team early.  Assuming the Sr and GS students leave as well, that’s only 3 open spots. 

With the success that Coach Cal has created and the drive that kids have to get to the NBA as fast as they can, I’m sure there are more than 3 five-star recruits looking to join the team next year.  So what do you do if you’re Coach Cal?  My heart tells me he’s a good man and he’s not going to kick off a sophomore or junior that’s working their tails off and getting good enough grades to stay eligible.  However, say you’ve got a group of kids that consists of the next Rose / Wall and AD / Cousins and MKG?  How does he make that decision of who he wants and who will have to “rough it” at North Carolina or Kansas or UCLA (or god please, SDSU)? 

This year Coach Cal has constantly, and correctly, said that this team needs time to gel and learn to play together.  Last year’s team was special.  A group of mainly freshmen and sophomores don’t usually learn to play so well together and unselfishly in just a few months.  What if this team and these players need another year?  Or worse, TWO?

Will the NBA factory dry up for a few years?  I have no doubt that if you give Coach Cal even B+ players, over time he’ll turn the group into a solid title contending team.  But that’s not the job Coach Cal has.  He’s supposed to turn out players each year to the NBA.  He’s supposed to be making final fours and “get these kids the fuck out” (my best Eddie Murphy’s drunk father standup voice).  What if that’s not the case for a few years.  What will the Kentucky brand look like?  An actual college athletic program?  It’s, almost, unthinkable.   Maybe Kentucky will only get one new Rose or AD per year.  Maybe they’ll have to be like…DUKE?!  NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.  “I don’t wanna graduate my students, you can’t make me” a manic Coach Cal screams as he’s curled up in some dark hallway in Rupp Arena. 

In the end, all these kids will be fine.  In fact, this could be the best thing for some of the Kentucky players.  Every year, EVERY YEAR, too many kids think they’re ready for the NBA and leave college early to try and make it in the Pros.  Most of them never realize their dreams of fame, fortune and championships.  They’d be better served staying in college.  There are also plenty of other fine colleges that will get who Kentucky can’t and have the coaches to make them into top NBA prospects.  They’ll most likely be one-and-done regardless of the college they go to.  You have to admit; having the Coach Cal label slapped on you sure helps put more eyes on you and gives you the benefit of the doubt.  Would Cousins still be seen as having great potential if not for his time at Kentucky and Coach Cal’s blessing.

Success in the college world is so fleeting for the schools and especially for the players.  That’s why it’s so rare to have schools and coaches that are successful for years, multiple classes, generations or decades.  Syracuse, Duke, UCLA, North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas and Indiana are such rarities that we don’t often take a step back and see what true success is.  It’s not just one class of freshmen.  We should be judging them on more than the last two years. 

Unfortunately when you’re seen as the NBA factory, you’re success is not just winning but how fast you can churn out winners, mold these talented but raw kids and move them on.  I wonder if Kentucky looses in the 2^nd round of the NCAA tournament a few consecutive years because they’ve been “saddled” with this crop of players for a few years, will Coach Cal still be seen as having success?  His version of success is a lot different than all the other coaches in the NCAA.

Then again, these are good problems to have.