Week 2 thoughts

The most over rated thing, other than preseason football, is NFL week 1 football. People make such big deals out of everything they see in one game that it’s like no one is thinking straight. That’s why it’s be best 2 weeks of football betting, because real gamblers and evaluators don’t get thrown into tail spins and start to declare teams Superbowl champs or failures based off of one week of games. Vegas is in the business of taking your money so these two weeks is where you’ll find the most inaccurate lines, not because the casinos and bookmakers don’t know what their doing, but they ride the wave of stupidity that’s out there. Their job is to get people to bet on both sides.

I give you the example of the Colts and the Cowboys. In full disclosure I’m a Colts fan and a Cowboys hater. If you where to take a poll during the off season, it wouldn’t be unlikely that many people would have the Colts vs ‘Boys in the Superbowl. The Colts have P. Manning and the Cowboys are loaded at all the key skill positions.

Both loss their first games of the year. Oh, how the writers / anchors / columnists / pundits / talk shows all yelled about each team. The cowboys where still Superbowl bound and just came across a fired up team and had a bad game, along with bad coaching and QB decision making, this really isn’t indicative on how the Cowboys are and they’ll be fine. Conversely, this was the end of the Colts run. Manning had a horrible team around him (even though there are few changes and the ones that where made have been rated as successes), their defense is porous and couldn’t stop the run, neither could they themselves run the football and all the changes in coaching have left no one there to make sound decisions.

If you’d believe what these people where saying, you’d think that the Cowboys where just a game or play away from being the most unstoppable group of players ever, just so happen to not win a playoff game in the past 15 year except for one. And you’d think that the team that’s dominated the NFL, won 12+ games every year, have been the model of consistency, produced and found gems in late round picks since they where always winning and never had a top 20 pick in any round for the past 5 to 10 years, and where always a threat to make a good run on the Lombardi trophy where now inexplicitly crashing and burning.

Well week 2 prove both things to be wrong. The Cowboys are in trouble and the Colts are fine. I’m not saying that I could have told you but shit, I could have told you!!

Yes, the preseason games are not a good barometer to figure out what a team is going to do during the regular season. I think the Colts have lost 90% of their preseason games over the past 5 years. But if you where to study the play and not the scores and Fantasy numbers of the preseason and relate that to what the teams show in week one, I think you can make fair conclusions that are far better than most analysis out there. I like the Colt / Cowboy comparison because both show perfect examples of what I’m talking about.

The Colts don’t win or care about winning preseason games. I think I’ve made that quite clear. But when you watch the preseason games you can learn a little something. Add that to what happens in the first game of the season, I think we’ll have made a better analysis of their team. Even though the Colts aren’t looking at the scoreboard of the preseason, I look at what their starters are doing on the field. I watched game 2 or 3 of their preseason and the starters marched up and down the field to score touchdowns and set up field goals. They seemed to be clicking on all cylinders. Then the second quarter started and boom, you get a change in philosophy and at that point they seem to drop off. In reality they’re judging players in each position to see who’s going to make the team or not. Peyton’s sitting on the sideline still listening to the calls, probably making a few himself, and really just going over what should happen on the field and honing his skills. Even to the point of looking at the receivers that are fighting for their jobs because he knows that one or two of them will make the team and he’ll need to throw them the ball eventually so he’d better learn their tendencies. This is what makes a good, championship team. You even look at their starting defenders. They showed promise of having a fast team that is going to play great with a lead and, as they always do, have a hard time playing from behind against a running team.

Meanwhile you watch the Cowboys and they too show terrible scores. Not as bad of score differential. They play a little tougher and harder to win these meaningless games. When watching their starters I noticed something. They can’t score. Every game I watched the Cowboys play in the preseason, Romo couldn’t hit a receiver, their runners couldn’t find wholes and half their starters seemed to be injured. But when you heard analysis on the Cowboys they where great and many people’s pick for NFC and Superbowl supremacy. I’d like to stress that their starters didn’t score one or maybe only one TD in the whole preseason.

Now let’s see what happened to the teams week 1. The Colts got rolled by a team in the Texans who’ve been waiting for this match up all off season. Their main goal is to get over the hump of loosing to the Colts and maybe if they can do that, just maybe win their division, get into the playoffs and possibly do some damage. They where ready for the Colts. They had been practicing for the Colts for 4 months. They new that they needed to get a lead or stay tied and just keep ramming the ball down the Colts weak run defense. Guess what, they played a perfect game. Keep in mind they only pulled away in the fourth quarter so the score was a little more one sided that the game actually was. Also, you had the running back for the Texans going for over 200 yards. These are numbers that sound impressive. But if it where 4 different players that each got 75 yards, we wouldn’t think too much, just an overall beating of the Colts. Bad loss, but again only week one. We are just used to seeing the Colts first loss in week 13 or 14. But in the end isn’t 13 – 3 still just 13 – 3, who cares how you get there.

Back to the Cowboys. They too play a divisional rival in the Redskins. Playing at the Redskins, one of the more intimidating home field crowds in football. The Cowboys showed a lack of any offensive cohesiveness and made mental mistake after mental mistake. They chose to cap both the first and second halves with plays and performances that I can say I’ve never seen. It was like watching Necessary Roughness and thinking, no way a team makes these kinds of mistakes. There’s just no way. Sure enough, instead of sitting on a close game at the end of the first half, they go for a hail mary. Not just a hail mary but when it’s obvious they’re not going to get it, Romo flips it to a running back that would have to go 60+ yards to make a touchdown. It was never going to happen. What did happen was that the receiver got the ball stripped and since both teams where the other way waiting for the HM, Hall was able to pick up the ball and basically skip into the endzone to finish off the first half. Wade Phillips (who has about 2 more losses until a mid season firing) didn’t even know the Redskins scored. I couldn’t tell you if that was good because like everyone else, he figured his team had more brains than to try for such nonsense but if it did, Romo or the receiver would know to kill the play before anything terrible happened OR was he so stupid that he should have know that he has a reckless and directionless team and he should be out there every second they have the ball because they need to be coddled like a child at a store and be told to sit down and shut up until the grown ups are ready to leave.

Week 2 comes around and I’ll finish by making this quick. Colts demolish a usually good and talented team in the NY Giants. While the Cowboys loose again to a team that was predicted to be at the bottom of their division, the Bears. I can’t even say that I was picking the Bears. Sure they won their first game this year but it wasn’t in a fashion where I thought that they’d be dominant. But the Bears slapped around the Cowboys. It wasn’t even as close as some would think. I wouldn’t even say the Bears took and won the game but I will say that the Cowboys did a lot more to loose that game.

So what can we take away from these week 2 examples? The Colts aren’t dead yet. Maybe they’ve come back to the pack a little or maybe they just had a bad first game against a team whose entire season was based on winning week one? The Colts D looked good and when playing with a lead they can be dominant. They can pin their ears back and send what may be the best two defensive ends in the league to go full speed after the opposing QB because they know they have to throw the ball in order the catch the Colts.

As for the Cowboys, they suck. I thought they sucked going into the season and I think they suck now. I’ll give that they have some really good players. That’s what happens when you’ve got an owner willing to spend and are in a division where you have to have talent to compete. I never like to blame a coaching staff but maybe this is truly the wrong coach for this team. They needed someone that was not as disciplined as Parcells and usually when you get a coach like Phillips who’s more loose in the locker room and a player’s coach, you’ll get good results the year or two after the dictatorship regime. Now that it’s been three years, the ‘Boys look just like that – BOYS. They look like they need someone to kick them into shape and demand they do things better because they do have the talent. Maybe we can say that the O line is finally back together and over the next few weeks that will help get the team on a winning streak. But I can’t imagine that the O line has anything to do with the Bears torching the Cowboy’s D? The Cowboys might have some good pass rushers but when a sorry group of receivers such as the Bears have can light you up, there are problems. What are you going to do against Philly who have young fast and good WR’s?

I do like the phrases, “you are what your record is” and “the preseason means nothing”. I think in many ways these things are true.

This early into the season, I don’t think you can go by the “you are what your record is” wrap. 2 games does not make a season or can tell you how a team will end up. who knows, maybe the Cowboys will win the rest of their games. I doubt it, but maybe they can transform a starting cast that hasn’t shown anything of substance for over a month and a half period?

At this early of the year, I’d also not rely on, “the preseason means nothing” either. It does mean something. It means how you can judge or evaluate your team’s potential. The Colts didn’t fall off the face of the earth. They’re A1 group is pretty damn good. I think you’ll see them in the playoffs. I wouldn’t be surprised if when the Texans come to the Big Oil Drum, they put on a show to prove who’s the old king of the division. Only time will tell. But from the old “eye test” I saw, even in the preseason, that the Colts where still a damn good team while they where trying.

Of course this can all change next week. I’m curious to see the headlines all week long. Will the Colts be back as America’s sweetheart team or on a gentle decline down? Are the Cowboys going to finally have people saying, they have the talent but something’s missing? I was listening to the NFL network’s wrap up of today’s games and one of the worst commentators, I won’t mention anyone’s name let’s just say you wouldn’t be shocked to see his name in Neon somewhere or that he always loved to play in Primetime, still says the Cowboys are “clearly” a great team and headed for the Superbowl. Well, only 4 teams have made it to the big game after starting 0 – 2 and just 3 of those went on to win. Those teams where the Emit-less (contract hold out) Cowboys, first year Tom Brady Patriots and the Miracle Catch / all star front D line of the NY Giants. Three teams, that for whatever reason, are vastly different and have the ability to do what the now Cowboys can’t. So unless these Cowboys find a once in a lifetime scenario, they better work their asses off and win dominantly next week.

Otherwise we still might see the Colts in the Superbowl but I don’t know about the Cowboys part of it.

Superbowl in NYC, not for me!

I love New York. I love the Superbowl. But putting them together is a bad idea.

First off, the stadium isn't even in New York. It's in New Jersey. Sure, it's around the corner and two teams claiming to be from NYC play there but I know a fact when I see one.

That's just me stroking a sarcastic note. I hate this idea because of the big ice burg in the room. It's cold!!! Even worse, it's NYC in February.

If this past year taught us anything is that the Pro Bowl shouldn't be played a week early AND it should be in Hawaii. What NFL-er wants to go to a city that they've played in or even live in as a "bonus" of being an all star. Many people said that these players are so rich that going to Hawaii isn't all that special anymore. I disagree. First off, it's a chance to take their families and show off that they're not just special but get the red carpet treatment in a tropical island. They can take their wives, parents, family all for a nice trip. Just like any high paying job, sure you can afford to go to Hawaii on your own but many times you don't. And it means something more when you're good at your job and get to share that with the family. If I was given a trip to Hawaii by the mortgage brokers of America in honor of being one of the best mortgage brokers that would be great. I've been to Hawaii and owned a place there, but to be honored and take the family; that's special. You won't have all these players dropping out of the game. Also, when you have it the week before you're taking out a good 5 - 10 players that are going to be in the Superbowl and can't play. The reason that these guys are in the Pro Bowl is because they're good and naturally their teams would be in the Superbowl.

Let's get back to the Superbowl. Let me bring up just one game. The "tuck game". New England VS Oakland. Need I say more. If the Raiders went on to win that game, they could be the one that has won 3 of 4 championships and been a dominating factor between 2000 - 2010. I'll live with the results because it was a championship game. But if you think that for one second that was a "good" game to watch or remember you're out of your fucking mind. Even Patriot fans will tell you that game was horrible, and they WON!

We might get lucky and you won't see a drop of rain or feel a push of wind but I doubt New York in February you'll get that lucky. Even if one ball is thrown off because of a wind factor of 45 MPH you'll never hear the end of it.

Now it sounds good, having the NFL's biggest game in their home city and the home of two big time franchises but to risk the SUPERBOWL to something like weather when you don't have to is just stupid. Sure it rained for the Colts vs Bears game but you can't control everything. It was still over 50 degrees. But you gave it the best possible chance of having good weather by playing in Miami during the winter. By having a Superbowl in NYC you're just asking for trouble. And when it hits, I hope it's not a team that I like in the game. Because that game will never be forgotten.

There was a pole on ESPN that showed 60% of the fans like the idea of having the game in NYC. I think there is a magical quality to having the game there. But someone has to be the voice of reason and look at the game part. We want a fair neutral site. Or just have it go to the highest ranked team's home field like every other sport. Also don't forget about the days leading up to the game. The NFL promotes such a large number of events that if you have bad weather you're killing your own product and setting yourself up for a logistical nightmare.

As always I could go on but this is not a Pro Bowl where we can try it out one year and see how it goes. The game is fine. Leave it alone. Please don't put the Superbowl in New York in February. I thought that there where smarter people that ran the NFL, but I guess when you get to have your office party in your back yard, you forget the reason why offices don't have parties at the office, no one wants to clean up the mess.

Early pic for SB

Here's the Bear's pic.

Colts 35 - Saints 24.

This could be a shoot out. So if anything I'd bet the over.

I never like that one team is talked about more than the other. It seems everyone is jumping on the Colts band wagon, more than that the Peyton Manning wagon. Let's not forget that the Saints are not to be overlooked offensively. They can match the Colts score for score. If the Saints get just 2 or 3 turnovers defensively I think they could win.

I don't think the final score will be close either way. If you like one team or another, pick that team and forget the points. We're talking about teams putting up 7's so I'm guessing that one of teams will win by more than 7 points. Specifically, the Colts will win by more than the line and if you like the Saints take the points.

This game smacks of scoring (so it'll probably be 13 to 10 :) ). Realistically, this should be a shoot out. Both teams are very good at moving the ball. The Saints give up a lot of yards and rely on turnovers, so if the Colts don't turn it over, they'll be putting up lots of points.

Good luck to all.

Take the NFC to win the coin toss. Believe it or not I think they've won for 12 straight years? And take the under on the amount of times they show Kim K in the stands. This is football, they'll only show her 2 or 3 times depending on if Bush does well.