Week 2 thoughts

The most over rated thing, other than preseason football, is NFL week 1 football. People make such big deals out of everything they see in one game that it’s like no one is thinking straight. That’s why it’s be best 2 weeks of football betting, because real gamblers and evaluators don’t get thrown into tail spins and start to declare teams Superbowl champs or failures based off of one week of games. Vegas is in the business of taking your money so these two weeks is where you’ll find the most inaccurate lines, not because the casinos and bookmakers don’t know what their doing, but they ride the wave of stupidity that’s out there. Their job is to get people to bet on both sides.

I give you the example of the Colts and the Cowboys. In full disclosure I’m a Colts fan and a Cowboys hater. If you where to take a poll during the off season, it wouldn’t be unlikely that many people would have the Colts vs ‘Boys in the Superbowl. The Colts have P. Manning and the Cowboys are loaded at all the key skill positions.

Both loss their first games of the year. Oh, how the writers / anchors / columnists / pundits / talk shows all yelled about each team. The cowboys where still Superbowl bound and just came across a fired up team and had a bad game, along with bad coaching and QB decision making, this really isn’t indicative on how the Cowboys are and they’ll be fine. Conversely, this was the end of the Colts run. Manning had a horrible team around him (even though there are few changes and the ones that where made have been rated as successes), their defense is porous and couldn’t stop the run, neither could they themselves run the football and all the changes in coaching have left no one there to make sound decisions.

If you’d believe what these people where saying, you’d think that the Cowboys where just a game or play away from being the most unstoppable group of players ever, just so happen to not win a playoff game in the past 15 year except for one. And you’d think that the team that’s dominated the NFL, won 12+ games every year, have been the model of consistency, produced and found gems in late round picks since they where always winning and never had a top 20 pick in any round for the past 5 to 10 years, and where always a threat to make a good run on the Lombardi trophy where now inexplicitly crashing and burning.

Well week 2 prove both things to be wrong. The Cowboys are in trouble and the Colts are fine. I’m not saying that I could have told you but shit, I could have told you!!

Yes, the preseason games are not a good barometer to figure out what a team is going to do during the regular season. I think the Colts have lost 90% of their preseason games over the past 5 years. But if you where to study the play and not the scores and Fantasy numbers of the preseason and relate that to what the teams show in week one, I think you can make fair conclusions that are far better than most analysis out there. I like the Colt / Cowboy comparison because both show perfect examples of what I’m talking about.

The Colts don’t win or care about winning preseason games. I think I’ve made that quite clear. But when you watch the preseason games you can learn a little something. Add that to what happens in the first game of the season, I think we’ll have made a better analysis of their team. Even though the Colts aren’t looking at the scoreboard of the preseason, I look at what their starters are doing on the field. I watched game 2 or 3 of their preseason and the starters marched up and down the field to score touchdowns and set up field goals. They seemed to be clicking on all cylinders. Then the second quarter started and boom, you get a change in philosophy and at that point they seem to drop off. In reality they’re judging players in each position to see who’s going to make the team or not. Peyton’s sitting on the sideline still listening to the calls, probably making a few himself, and really just going over what should happen on the field and honing his skills. Even to the point of looking at the receivers that are fighting for their jobs because he knows that one or two of them will make the team and he’ll need to throw them the ball eventually so he’d better learn their tendencies. This is what makes a good, championship team. You even look at their starting defenders. They showed promise of having a fast team that is going to play great with a lead and, as they always do, have a hard time playing from behind against a running team.

Meanwhile you watch the Cowboys and they too show terrible scores. Not as bad of score differential. They play a little tougher and harder to win these meaningless games. When watching their starters I noticed something. They can’t score. Every game I watched the Cowboys play in the preseason, Romo couldn’t hit a receiver, their runners couldn’t find wholes and half their starters seemed to be injured. But when you heard analysis on the Cowboys they where great and many people’s pick for NFC and Superbowl supremacy. I’d like to stress that their starters didn’t score one or maybe only one TD in the whole preseason.

Now let’s see what happened to the teams week 1. The Colts got rolled by a team in the Texans who’ve been waiting for this match up all off season. Their main goal is to get over the hump of loosing to the Colts and maybe if they can do that, just maybe win their division, get into the playoffs and possibly do some damage. They where ready for the Colts. They had been practicing for the Colts for 4 months. They new that they needed to get a lead or stay tied and just keep ramming the ball down the Colts weak run defense. Guess what, they played a perfect game. Keep in mind they only pulled away in the fourth quarter so the score was a little more one sided that the game actually was. Also, you had the running back for the Texans going for over 200 yards. These are numbers that sound impressive. But if it where 4 different players that each got 75 yards, we wouldn’t think too much, just an overall beating of the Colts. Bad loss, but again only week one. We are just used to seeing the Colts first loss in week 13 or 14. But in the end isn’t 13 – 3 still just 13 – 3, who cares how you get there.

Back to the Cowboys. They too play a divisional rival in the Redskins. Playing at the Redskins, one of the more intimidating home field crowds in football. The Cowboys showed a lack of any offensive cohesiveness and made mental mistake after mental mistake. They chose to cap both the first and second halves with plays and performances that I can say I’ve never seen. It was like watching Necessary Roughness and thinking, no way a team makes these kinds of mistakes. There’s just no way. Sure enough, instead of sitting on a close game at the end of the first half, they go for a hail mary. Not just a hail mary but when it’s obvious they’re not going to get it, Romo flips it to a running back that would have to go 60+ yards to make a touchdown. It was never going to happen. What did happen was that the receiver got the ball stripped and since both teams where the other way waiting for the HM, Hall was able to pick up the ball and basically skip into the endzone to finish off the first half. Wade Phillips (who has about 2 more losses until a mid season firing) didn’t even know the Redskins scored. I couldn’t tell you if that was good because like everyone else, he figured his team had more brains than to try for such nonsense but if it did, Romo or the receiver would know to kill the play before anything terrible happened OR was he so stupid that he should have know that he has a reckless and directionless team and he should be out there every second they have the ball because they need to be coddled like a child at a store and be told to sit down and shut up until the grown ups are ready to leave.

Week 2 comes around and I’ll finish by making this quick. Colts demolish a usually good and talented team in the NY Giants. While the Cowboys loose again to a team that was predicted to be at the bottom of their division, the Bears. I can’t even say that I was picking the Bears. Sure they won their first game this year but it wasn’t in a fashion where I thought that they’d be dominant. But the Bears slapped around the Cowboys. It wasn’t even as close as some would think. I wouldn’t even say the Bears took and won the game but I will say that the Cowboys did a lot more to loose that game.

So what can we take away from these week 2 examples? The Colts aren’t dead yet. Maybe they’ve come back to the pack a little or maybe they just had a bad first game against a team whose entire season was based on winning week one? The Colts D looked good and when playing with a lead they can be dominant. They can pin their ears back and send what may be the best two defensive ends in the league to go full speed after the opposing QB because they know they have to throw the ball in order the catch the Colts.

As for the Cowboys, they suck. I thought they sucked going into the season and I think they suck now. I’ll give that they have some really good players. That’s what happens when you’ve got an owner willing to spend and are in a division where you have to have talent to compete. I never like to blame a coaching staff but maybe this is truly the wrong coach for this team. They needed someone that was not as disciplined as Parcells and usually when you get a coach like Phillips who’s more loose in the locker room and a player’s coach, you’ll get good results the year or two after the dictatorship regime. Now that it’s been three years, the ‘Boys look just like that – BOYS. They look like they need someone to kick them into shape and demand they do things better because they do have the talent. Maybe we can say that the O line is finally back together and over the next few weeks that will help get the team on a winning streak. But I can’t imagine that the O line has anything to do with the Bears torching the Cowboy’s D? The Cowboys might have some good pass rushers but when a sorry group of receivers such as the Bears have can light you up, there are problems. What are you going to do against Philly who have young fast and good WR’s?

I do like the phrases, “you are what your record is” and “the preseason means nothing”. I think in many ways these things are true.

This early into the season, I don’t think you can go by the “you are what your record is” wrap. 2 games does not make a season or can tell you how a team will end up. who knows, maybe the Cowboys will win the rest of their games. I doubt it, but maybe they can transform a starting cast that hasn’t shown anything of substance for over a month and a half period?

At this early of the year, I’d also not rely on, “the preseason means nothing” either. It does mean something. It means how you can judge or evaluate your team’s potential. The Colts didn’t fall off the face of the earth. They’re A1 group is pretty damn good. I think you’ll see them in the playoffs. I wouldn’t be surprised if when the Texans come to the Big Oil Drum, they put on a show to prove who’s the old king of the division. Only time will tell. But from the old “eye test” I saw, even in the preseason, that the Colts where still a damn good team while they where trying.

Of course this can all change next week. I’m curious to see the headlines all week long. Will the Colts be back as America’s sweetheart team or on a gentle decline down? Are the Cowboys going to finally have people saying, they have the talent but something’s missing? I was listening to the NFL network’s wrap up of today’s games and one of the worst commentators, I won’t mention anyone’s name let’s just say you wouldn’t be shocked to see his name in Neon somewhere or that he always loved to play in Primetime, still says the Cowboys are “clearly” a great team and headed for the Superbowl. Well, only 4 teams have made it to the big game after starting 0 – 2 and just 3 of those went on to win. Those teams where the Emit-less (contract hold out) Cowboys, first year Tom Brady Patriots and the Miracle Catch / all star front D line of the NY Giants. Three teams, that for whatever reason, are vastly different and have the ability to do what the now Cowboys can’t. So unless these Cowboys find a once in a lifetime scenario, they better work their asses off and win dominantly next week.

Otherwise we still might see the Colts in the Superbowl but I don’t know about the Cowboys part of it.